The Odds Machine

Play out 10,000 Octobers

Eight teams, one trophy. The engine plays the whole bracket over and over using each club's real 2026 record, then counts who lifts the Commissioner's Trophy. Slide from chalk to chaos and watch the odds move.

Chaos slider

Favorites15%Full chaos

Simulations

Championship odds

Share of simulated Octobers each team ends as World Series champion.

Press “Run the machine”.

League pennant odds

Most common World Series

Broadcast mode

One full October, played out game by game. Scores are generated by the engine and are fictional.

Hit “Broadcast one October” above.

The model: strength comes from final regular-season winning percentage, shrunk toward .500 by the chaos setting. A log5 formula sets each game's win probability, home field adds a small edge, and series follow the real 2-2-1 (Division Series) and 2-3-2 (Championship Series, World Series) home patterns.